Population Crisis

Through the many science classes I have taken, and through the media, I have been told that our world population is going to exceed the carrying capacity of the earth. I've also been told that this will cause many different problems, including global warming. This week, in my family relations class, I watched a video that contradicted this theory. There is evidence that we are actually going to experience a population decrease within the next 40 years. Some people might say this is a good thing, but this video pointed out why this could actually lead to a demographic winter.   

The main reason why the world is experiencing a population decrease is the drop in fertility rate. Fertility rate is defined by how many children a woman has in her lifetime. The current world fertility rate is about 2.47 children. The fertility rate that is required for replacement of the world population is 2.13. Now I know that you are probably thinking that is still more then we need for replacement, and that we would still be growing. However, research has shown that the fertility rate is decreasing each year. One example of this is, in nine years, the fertility rate has dropped from 2.6 to 2.47, that is a phenomenal drop for such a short period of time. If this pattern increases we'll be at the replacement level in about 24 years.  Some people may think this will never happen, because third world countries have tons of children, but as more of the third world countries are becoming more modernized we have seen a drop in their fertility rate as well.  In most of the first world countries, the fertility rate is already below the replacement rate.

Since the sixties, there have been people claiming that in the near future there would not be enough resources to support even four billion people on the earth and that millions would starve to death. Today there are over seven billion, and there are still plenty of resources to go around because of human capital. Human capital is the knowledge, skills or abilities possessed by individuals.  In other words, it is basic human resources. Humans have been coming up with new technologies to support themselves since the beginning of civilization. In the last two centuries more innovations have been made than any other time in history. It truly has been a great time for man! But human capital is in jeopardy with the population decrease.

Another problem pointed out with the population drop in fertility rate, is that less people will be in our work force to help support the retired population. 

I highly encourage anyone that reads this to not just take my word for it, but to do your own research. Come up with questions, and try to find your own answers. I will post the link to the video for you to have a starting point if you'd like. I've just touched on some of the information found in it. http://www.byutv.org/watch/59b6b917-984a-478f-93b1-521a647779c4/new-economic-reality-demographic-winter-part-1